Description: In the evolving realm of healthcare actuarial practice, value-based contracts are reshaping the landscape. This article explores the pivotal role of AI-enhanced Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) in empowering actuaries to navigate this dynamic sector. Despite challenges in data standardization, AI-enhanced EMRs offer a solution by extracting and standardizing diverse medical records. The article delineates how AI-EMR integration benefits actuaries and provider organizations, enabling more accurate forecasting, earlier shared savings prepayments, and real-time quality metric aggregation. Moreover, it discusses how this fusion addresses historical data limitations, can help project catastrophic claims, and can help identify risk score capture opportunities. Ultimately, it indicates the transformative potential of AI-EMR synergy, positioning actuaries at the forefront of healthcare analytics with unprecedented precision and insight.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: The landscape of the reinsurance industry is evolving amid profound changes in the insurance sector. Innovation is vital for reinsurers as risks become more complex and insurers transition from a role of "protection" to "prevention." Successful reinsurers are responding to market dynamics, particularly through open innovation – collaboration with startups.

Description: How insurers can include a liquidity score and liquidity stress scenarios as part of their asset liability management (ALM) protocol.

Description: In today’s market of post-pandemic consolidation and org chart streamlining, we’ve observed significant changes to actuarial career development and advancement opportunities. But, those changes aren’t occurring in equal measures across the arc of the actuarial career. Our focus is on the impact felt by experienced reinsurance actuaries.

Description: Trends in mortality have a huge impact on the insurance industry and its products, risks and profitability. Worldwide, life expectancy has increased continuously over the past decades. However, this progress—even without considering the Covid-19 pandemic—has been subject to strong fluctuations. In recent years, an increase in volatility can be observed. Various aspects—medical science, environment, lifestyle—have influenced the trend in the past. How can the life and health industry move forward in these uncertain conditions? In this article, we examine what has gone before and what can be learned from a closer analysis. What are the main drivers of the historical increase in life expectancy? What characterizes the dynamics of the recent past? How can mortality be projected into the future? How good are our methods of prediction and what are the risks? What risk management options are available?

Description: As the insurance industry continues to evolve due to a pandemic and rapidly changing economic and regulatory conditions, the role of data scientists and actuaries has become increasingly important. In an interview with the Atidot data science and actuarial team, we discuss what it is like to work at an InsurTech, how data scientists and actuaries can collaborate, and look at some concrete technical examples of where the innovation is having an impact. This article explores what collaboration can look like and how the role of data science and actuary may evolve in the InsurTech industry in the future.

Description: Actuary Dave Dillon describes his role volunteering his time as a teacher in higher education, including the rewards and challenges that teaching offers. He discusses the importance of being attentive to his audience’s pre-existing knowledge and adapting his presentations accordingly. His work as a teacher typically encompasses three distinct domains: 1) acquainting young students with the actuarial profession, 2) educating non-actuaries about public policy issues related to health insurance (including the Affordable Care Act), and 3) instructing current actuaries on advanced methodologies and principles within the field. Recently he taught a health insurance course for actuarial science graduate students at Georgia State University and lectured at Boise State University’s master's program in Population & Health Systems Management. In every teaching and mentoring opportunity, actuaries can contribute to the expansion and prosperity of the profession and are encouraged to pursue these endeavors.

Description: Dovel Technologies started as a two-person company, and by the time we sold to Private Equity in late 2019, Dovel had more than 1,200 people on its payroll. In this article, the authors (and cofounders of Dovel) describe two concepts that helped Dovel grow that actuaries can apply to help grow their firms.

Description: The cyber insurance market looks like it’s growing—rapidly, in fact. However, there’s more to the cyber insurance market than the outward appearance of strong growth. Worldwide aggregate premium’s upward trend may even be cause for alarm. The increase in premium against a flat rate of insured exposure is a key sign that the market could turn from growth to constriction if a solution isn’t found in the near future. If the cyber insurance sector hopes to reach such lofty goals as exceeding $30 billion in global premium by 2028, it’s going to need more capital. Whether directly into the insurance sector or via support from reinsurance and retrocession, fresh capital should help insurers achieve greater market penetration, build a broader foundation for ongoing expansion, and chart a course for long-term sustainable profitable growth. The same sources capital insurers have used since the early days of the market won’t be enough, though. Thankfully, the insurance linked securities (ILS) market seems poised to help, particularly with several promising recent transactions. New sources of capital could bolster the foundation for future cyber re/insurance growth.

Description: Join us for the Pandemics & Paradigm Shifts: ERM in an Intensely Dynamic World panel discussion, where industry and regulatory perspectives will help provide insight into a number of topics. Expect interactive dialogue opportunities based on the conversation between the panelists and the audience. Key topics that will be conversed about, but the panel is not limited to, include a brief review of historical paradigm shifts and subsequent insurer failures, best practices and an outlook on the ultra-dynamic world of today and consideration of a company's enterprise risk management framework as it affects ratings and insurance department examinations.

Description: A look at the near future and far future of various elements of Actuarial Models as defined through ASOP 51. What is driving the complexity for inputs, calculations, and outputs. Howe will actuaries handle these challenge?

Description: ACA risk adjustment is intended to "bridge the gap" between allowed rates and actuarial rates. If risk adjustment methodology is not bridging that gap & becomes an additional input to pricing formulae, it is not serving its intended purpose.

Description: This is the second of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: The paper demonstrates that the most popular rationalization for evolving glide paths is flawed and should be discarded. The paper also demonstrates that glide paths should generally evolve for investors that endeavor to optimize outcomes and reevaluate their portfolios regularly.

Description: Family caregivers are a critical link in providing long-term services and supports (LTSS), but they have significant unmet needs. To better support family caregivers, Congress authorized the Recognize, Assist, Include, Support, & Engage (RAISE) Family Caregivers Act in 2018 and created the RAISE Family Caregiving Advisory Council. The Council identified recommendations to serve as the backbone of a national strategy to improve the physical, emotional and financial well-being of family caregivers. A new report, "Asking Directions: Mapping a Course to Support Family Caregivers," identifies specific actions across a variety of players for meeting the Council’s recommendations. It summarizes insights from a year’s worth of strategy sessions and interviews with representatives of over 100 organizations. The report brings together thoughts on best practices and the most critical action steps from national and state organizations, county health providers, the direct care workforce, large and small employers, aging and disability organizations, faith-based groups, respite care providers and more. This article summarizes the research methods and key findings of the report and the work conducted by the Leading Age LTSS Center @UMass Boston and Community Catalyst’s Center for Consumer Engagement in Health Innovation.

Description: it discusses the framework and modeling of the market consistent valuation of fixed indexed annuity, against the backdrop of the convergence of accounting standards and internal risk management.

Description: For over a decade, life insurers have been challenged by a low interest rate environment, making it difficult to find investments with adequate yield, manage corporate spreads, and offer competitive products to consumers. While interest rates are still low compared to the early 2000’s, volatility in rates over the past year, during which the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has increased by nearly 100 basis points, could indicate a longer-term trend of rising rates. What would a rising rate environment imply for life insurance writers? Insurers able to react to interest rate changes with agility can remain relevant in an evolving economy, protecting themselves and their policyholders. This article addresses risks and considerations faced by insurers with respect to in-force retention, pricing and product mix, and reinsurance and mergers & acquisitions.

Description: Interview (Q&A) with Charlie Shamieh, Chairman of Gen Re, against the backdrop of the COVID-19 Pandemic and its impact on Re/Insurance

Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: This article looks at how the underwriting process has transformed from a paper process to become fully online. Not only has the process been digitized, there has been various innovations incorporating technology thus enabling large volume process automation, better customer experience as well as higher closing ratio. Other than improvement on speed and efficiency, various smart solutions are being explored to refine risk management through data mining and analysis of underwriting data.

Description: This article describes Medicare Supplement and short-term care products in more detail, and we compare their risk profiles. We explore the concept that these two products—when offered together—may provide a complementary hedge of certain policyholder behavior risks.

Description: Interview with Karen Lockridge, FSA, FCIA and Francisca Quinn regarding fiduciary concerns with and future outlook for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing.

Description: This article describes how to externalize code of Moody's Axis platform to Visual Studio, so that all the actuarial calculation code run through corporate DevOps pipeline. This article gives specific examples of the author has used in his job to accomplish automated model governance.

Description: This article speculates on the presence and magnitude of the benefits attributable to regular rebalancing of one's investment portfolio. It surveys the extant literature, discusses certain implications, and presents conclusions.

Description: The session will feature case study discussion of how insurers can improve their model architecture and data visualization to prepare for the increasing demands of the future. Actuarial data and analysis has long been limited by the complexity and diversity of historical systems. External pressure on insurers is higher than ever before, as new requirements take effect under PBR, GAAP Targeted Improvements, and IFRS17.

Description: Lower costs doesn't necessarily help ACA markets. It often makes things worse.

Description: Read the January 2020 issue of International News published by the International Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Baseline and "what if"/stressed projections of cash flows, financial statements and capital requirements are critical inputs for a range of business purposes: forecasts, risk management, liquidity management, strategic decision making, etc. Forward-looking projections have historically been inefficient and were performed in silos, making it difficult to scale the process as CFOs and CROs ask for more. The presenters discuss challenges of the forecast process and opportunities to meet desired future capabilities. They will also discuss "what if" analysis and ways to support production of forward-looking projections for "what if" analysis in an efficient way.

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).

Description: Representing a large indexed annuity writer, the speakers will discuss the growth and evolution of the market for index annuity products. Moreover, the challenges that growth has introduced and how those challenges are being met. While much of the market consists of simple, accumulation-oriented S&P 500 based strategies with 0% return floors, a significant portion of industry sales come from more complex products with highly customized index strategies and other features, such as living benefit guarantees. Attendees will gain a broad understanding of the indexed annuity market, product and features, operational difficulties in risk management arising from product design, and how actuarial and hedge professionals are managing these issues.

Description: The NAIC has adopted revised VM-21 and AG43 for variable annuities, effective Jan. 1, 2020. The panel of presenters will provide background and an overview of the revisions, discuss detailed aspects of the new CTE Amount Standard Projection and prescribed assumptions, as well as discuss implementation considerations and the implications to hedging. In addition, the panelists will share progress on VM-23, principle-based reserves for non-variable annuities.

Description: Representing a large indexed annuity writer, the speakers will discuss the growth and evolution of the market for index annuity products. Moreover, the challenges that growth has introduced and how those challenges are being met. While much of the market consists of simple, accumulation-oriented S&P 500 based strategies with 0% return floors, a significant portion of industry sales come from more complex products with highly customized index strategies and other features, such as living benefit guarantees. Attendees will gain a broad understanding of the indexed annuity market, product and features, operational difficulties in risk management arising from product design, and how actuarial and hedge professionals are managing these issues.

Description: In this session, a company will share its experience on managing risks underlying the equity-linked insurance guarantees and what lessons were learned over these years as it adapted its strategies to suit the current market environment.

Description: An exploration of drivers, cohorts and dynamics for policyholder behavior for VA and FIA based on industry experience data, including changes in recent years and the emergence of long-term data in key areas. We will also discuss critical elements to developing a sustainable and coherent framework to translate this complex experience data into assumption models.

Description: The speakers will discuss the replication of long-term options, including a discussion of issues such as liquidity, transaction costs, slippage, impact of policyholder behavior, and machine learning algorithms to improve hedge effectiveness.

Description: The speaker will discuss the training of neural networks to compute future Greeks of liabilities (or options) without the use of nested stochastics.

Description: The proposed revisions to the variable annuity statutory framework and the FASB targeted improvement for long duration contract, motivate life insurance companies to re-evaluate their hedging strategy. Recently proposed revisions of AG 43/VM-21 and C3 Phase II, reward companies that have a clearly defined hedging strategy, if the companies can demonstrate that the valuation model and capital model can estimate real hedge performance accurately. The speakers of this session will discuss the hedging implication of the proposed AG 43/VM-21 and C3 Phase II framework. Additionally, methodology computational requirements, back-testing results under different economic scenarios and the resulting hedge credits of different hedging strategies will be compared, including explicit dynamic hedge and implicit dynamic hedge. The speakers will also touch on the impact of rebalance frequency on the performance of dynamic hedge. Case studies will be presented to provide guidance on practical implementation.

Description: Certain valuation assumptions are difficult to set with a high degree of accuracy, whether because the underlying experience is in different economic or interest rate environments, in addition to other reasons. Examples include assumptions for long-term care insurance, annuity options, lapsation and premium persistency on ULSG. This session will share how the actuary can use predictive analytics to augment the assumption-setting process. Some of the benefits to the actuary (along with the company and the regulator) include more accurate assumptions with lower margins for adverse deviations. Of possible interest as well is that applications go beyond valuation and include acquisitions, reinsurance and pricing.

Description: Baseline and what-if/stressed projections of cash flows, financial statements and capital requirements are critical inputs to a range of business purposes, including forecasts, risk management, liquidity management, strategic decision making, etc. Forward looking projections have historically been inefficient and performed in silos making it difficult to scale the process as CFOs and CROs ask for more. In this session we discuss challenges of the forecast process and opportunities to meet desired future capabilities. We will also discuss “what-if” analysis and ways to support production of forward looking projections for “what-if” analysis in an efficient way.

Description: The collective investment in transforming the life insurance proposition exceeds anything seen in the last thirty years — a working lifetime. As one would expect, reinsurers are playing a major role. The past five years have seen global reinsurers raise the bar on client experience to new levels, while also investing, expanding and re-organizing to support the transformation of the primary insurance industry, and in so doing also their own.

Description: The key tasks of credit risk capital project under CROSS II mainly focus onL(1 )Adjustment of measurement framework; (2) Calibration of risk factors, including both credit spread risk and credit default risk;3)Introduction of concentration risk measurement; (4) Higher requirement on look-through rule.

Description: Learn industry best practices including challenges faced by retirees, such as needing exposure to growth, most exposed to sequencing risk, and the need for smooth returns to avoid poor investor behavior caused by risk aversion. Other topics will include how to set investment objectives which consider the members’ real-world needs and how to build portfolios and implement risk management strategies to meet those objectives. The speaker will provide real-life examples/case studies.

Description: Maintaining solid financial performance is a KPI for senior management. With the advancement of technology, the management can leverage new techniques to improve their decision making and focus on higher value activities in a timely manner. This presentation sets out the use of 1. correlation analysis to draw relationship between financial metrics and 2. smart analytics techniques, including text mining and analytics, to identify trends and drivers that impact the valuation of a company. We will also assess how the results of a comprehensive financial analysis could influence risk management considerations, including business steering and risk strategy.

Description: There is a growing amount of “off-balance sheet” talent in the US and Global workforce. This spans from consultants and contractors, to gig workers and the crowd (both curated crowd and open crowd). One such example is Uber and Lyft workers. Insurance companies and the Actuarial profession have started to experiment with platforms such as Kaggle and this will continue to grow and evolve. This article explores these new sources of talent for companies, the implications to the actuarial function, benefits and challenges of the evolving workforce.

Description: Multiple perspectives will be provided on the factors that are driving global interest rates in today's economic environment. Presenters will discuss the historical evolution of interest rates in developed markets, the shifting landscape in the current environment and what savers (particularly insurers and annuity providers) can do with this information. There will also be some discussion on the general macroeconomic environment and credit condition

Description: A new wave of life insurance buyers is finally here - but are we ready? In this article, Richard De Sousa shares proprietary research about the Millenial generation, its beliefs related to life insurance, and its preferences when it comes to learning about, purchasing, and engaging with life insurance products, advisors and companies. Also explored is the foundational role that technology and wellness play in driving the kind of experience that will attract millenial buyers. After reading this article, you will better understand the characteristics of this new generation as well as the innovative companies that are targeting them, and learn about different and novel ways to better engage with customers and enhance the value of your own products and services.

Description: While there are many approaches currently being taken to transform health care, to be successful, we know that leading and planning for quality improvement is a science. Data is the common denominator as healthcare organizations establish best-practices, and ultimately overcome unintended variation through strong analytic systems. Health care leaders require specialized data analysis education and training to hone their skills in understanding and managing clinical variation. The problem with unexplained variation in healthcare is that it negatively impacts clinical outcomes, increases the cost of care, and diminishes value for patients. In this session, Dr. Ted James (BIDMC and Harvard Medical School Faculty) will explain how actuaries can offer practical solutions that provide insights into variations in clinical practice that cannot be explained by differences in medical conditions or patient preferences.

Description: Global megatrends in technology are disrupting the life insurance industry.

Description: Accelerated underwriting is changing the world of consumer engagement. The newness and overhaul of these programs creates challenges for development, coordination and management. This seminar will take attendees through how the market is developing, the major pricing, underwriting, and marketing considerations, and what regulators are considering with regard to these programs. At the conclusion of this seminar, attendees will: • Discuss trends in accelerated underwriting • Understand the issues that arise when developing an accelerated underwriting program • Understand best practices in developing an accelerated underwriting program • Explain the impact of accelerated underwriting on underwriting, pricing, marketing and compliance

Description: Latest in our on-going series in which we have a candid discussion with one the insurance industry's most respected and high profile risk practitioners

Description: Managed strategies as underlying investments in VA/FIA products have seen spectacular growth since the financial crisis. The speakers of these sessions will share their views on the development of this market and what is expected to unfold over the next 12 months in regard to the next generation of products and fund-based strategies.

Description: Reinsurance has been available for VA Guarantees for over 20 years. During that time, the reinsurance market for VA Guarantees has undergone frequent and sometimes violent transformations. Where does the market stand today? What forms and structures of reinsurance are available? Which VA Guarantee designs and features are easier to reinsure? Is reinsurance offered on both newly issued policies as well as in force/legacy books, and which vintages are difficult to reinsure? In an age of sophisticated hedging programs, what role does a reinsurer play in helping a VA writer manage this highly volatile risk? In this session, we will hear from a reinsurer that is actively writing new VA Guarantee reinsurance treaties in the U.S. and around the world, and from a VA writer that has successfully partnered with a reinsurer to enhance its VA product offering.

Description: This session will explore several critical elements in developing a sustainable and coherent framework to translate complex annuity (VA and FIA) policyholder behavior experience data to assumption models using company- and industry-level data, as well as inforce management techniques to handle related risks.

Description: This session will provide an overview of the evolution of equity-based guarantees (e.g. VA, FIA, etc.) over the last few years and discuss the current lay of the land as it relates to the regulatory, issues, capital markets (e.g. Department of Labor, Dodd-Frank) environment in which these products are offered.

Description: The presentation will outline the different possibilities insurance companies have to hedge their equity risk for the various products.

Description: Overview/Foreword by the 2017 Symposium Chair and Foreword by the 2020 Symposium Chair.

Description: The speaker of this session will provide a bottom up analysis and categorization of the $200 billion of volatility control funds related investments while recapping volatility control fund trading around volatility spikes (including Aug. 2015 and June 2016). The assessment of potential market impact of the volatility control funds’ rebalancing activity will also be discussed.

Description: The speaker of this session will discuss some common difficulties one encounters when dealing with exotic equity linked derivatives. In particular, a study of a Monthly Sum Cap (MSC) will be presented. Pricing issues, along with dynamic hedging, as well as projections of MSC into the future will also be discussed. Time permitting, some aspects of historical performance will also be addressed

Description: Mr. Rallis will discuss trends in the market for risk transfer of defined benefit plans in the US. He will also address implications of increasing longevity.

Description: The October/November 2015 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: The August/September 2014 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: The February/March 2014 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: AHIP commissioned the Menges Group to write this white paper on key pressures in the budgetary environment that stress the actuarial soundness of Medicaid rates. Though written by non-actuaries, this white paper thoroughly describes key professionalism topics that face Medicaid actuaries in their daily work.

Description: The December 2013/January 2014 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: This paper provides a summary of the Dec. 2012 summit of the Natural Resource Sustainability Group and invited experts.

Description: Universal Life/Indexed Universal Life trends based on the 6th annual Milliman survey of leading UL carriers. Reveals the current dynamics of the UL/IUL market and provides carriers with competitive benchmarking to see how they stand relative to their peers.

Description: The April/May 2013 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: Replacement rates have historically been a tool to determine the adequacy of retirement income to maintain an individual’s standard of living. Numerous conceptual and methodological issues lie, however, beneath its simple exterior. The purpose of this paper is to examine these underlying issues for the benefit of retirement security stakeholders, pension plan sponsors, advisors, financial product providers, and individuals planning for retirement.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper explores cognitive and behavioral theories that can be applied to explain why emerging risk is often overlooked, downplayed or ignored. It also proposes an innovative framework for managing emerging risk within an overall enterprise risk management program.

Description: This monograph was presented at the 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, held March 14-16 in Chicago. The author, writing from a property-liability insurance perspective, notes that capital allocation is a theoretical exercise because all of a firm’s capital could be depleted to cover a significant loss arising from any one segment. However, firms do need to allocate capital for pricing, risk management and performance evaluation. In this paper, the cost of capital in financial markets is incorporated into the Ruhm-Mango-Kreps algorithm to yield one allocation that reflects the true cost of capital an insurer would face.

Description: Research report describing the results of an Emerging Risks Survey conducted in 2010. This survey attempts to track the thoughts of risk managers about emerging risks across time. The new top five are: 1. Fall in value of US Dollar. 2. International terrorism. 3. Chinese economic hard landing. 4. Oil price shock. 5. Failed and failing states.